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New Labour Leadership elected
Sep. 12th, 2015 02:12 pmWell, we now have the results of the roller-coaster Labour leadership election touched off by the resignation of Ed Miliband after the narrow Conservative election victory in May. Jeremy Corbyn has been elected leader by nearly 60% in the first round of preference voting. Tom Watson has been elected deputy leader.
The pundits are sharpening their tongues (and their pencils) to try and analyse this victory and predict what it will mean for the Labour party and for Parliament.
How this happened
First, the quick resignation by Ed Miliband probably wasn't necessary. He could have remained as leader and called for a leisurely leadership election. He resigned the morning after the General Election defeat and has pretty much disappeared, except for appearing in a picture sporting an incipient beard. He's kept out of the race and will continue as a backbencher. I expect he will follow his brother (whom he defeated in the 2010 leadership election and who decamped to the United States rather than remaining in Parliament) into either academia or some kind of think tank.
Second, the election rules were changed. Traditionally there were three electoral groups: The labour unions, regular party members, and Labour MPs. If you were a Labour MP, you got at least two votes (as a regular party member and as an MP), and if you were in addition a trade union member, you got three votes. This system was thought to be undesirable since the trade unions had a huge veto over the identify of the leader. To dilute the unions' influence, Miliband changed the system to a one-member-one-vote system. This has produced two difficulties. First, the unions have enormous influence and could sign up thousands of their members as individual members and get them to cast their votes. And second, Labour MPs no longer have much influence over their leader. They band together to nominate one of their fellow MPs for the leadership, but after that they can't influence the election very much.
Corbyn was only nominated at the very last minute by some MPs who were not on the left of the party, but who thought that Corbyn would add some "spice" to the contest and that the left needed representation on the slate. Some of these MPs have been kicking themselves ever since.
On the plus side, many people have joined the party and gotten involved in politics because of Corbyn's presence on the slate.
Other changes included the thought that anyone who paid £3 could become not a Labour member, but a registered supporter, and vote for the leader. Aside from the fact that members of other parties registered as supporters in order to vote for the candidate who would most benefit their parties, this led to an expansion in the number of Corbyn-supporters, who tend to be younger, more socialist in outlook, and more disaffected from the current Labour leadership.
The party tried to exclude people who they could demonstrate had supported other parties, but it ended up with political egg on its virtual face, as long-term Labour supporters who had resigned from the party but who signed up again were unfairly excluded. Some of them were prominent people (Jeremy Hardy, for example) and when they were excluded they went public.
What may now happen
First, I think that a goodly number of shadow Cabinet members (for the parliamentary-democracy-challenged, these are Labour MPs who "shadow" the government cabinet members and who are responsible for calling the government to account and serving as spokespeople for the Opposition's positions on matters within their own portfolio) will resign—some have done so already. Other prominent MPs will not serve with Corbyn.
Some of this comes from the fact that Corbyn has often rebelled against his party since he was elected. Demanding loyalty from his MPs now will be difficult. I predict he will be relaxed about this rather than forcing them to vote as he wishes.
The rest comes from the fact that many Labour MPs owe their preferment to Tony Blair or his Blairite associates. Corbyn is the antithesis of everything that Blair stands for, and during this campaign Blair (who has been pretty silent about his successors Gordon Brown and Miliband) said that anyone who votes with their heart for Corbyn needs a heart transplant. So no love from Blair toward Corbyn then.
What might be a positive outcome is that Corbyn is likely to be much more of a sharper questioner at Prime Minister's Question Time on Wednesdays at noon when Parliament is in session. Miliband tended to look for sound bites in questions, and Cameron fielded these not only with ease, but with venom and even personal cruelty. Corbyn is a teetotaler, a vegetarian, and a Socialist who has not been aligned with his own party. Thus, his questions will tend not to go for the sound bite but be real quests for information, which Cameron will struggle to answer truthfully.
The EU Referendum, to come within 2 years, may hinge on how Labour comes out in reference to EU membership. The last time there was an EU referendum, in the 1970's, many Labour MPs, including many on the left of the party, were against membership for various reasons. Corbyn may not be in favour of continued membership, but I expect he'll allow Labour members to vote with their consciences rather than toeing a party line.
The next General Election
After the gerrymandering of districts that the Conservatives are planning in the UK, it's quite likely that Labour will lose even more seats in the next election. If Corbyn is not unseated in a coup by MPs, he will resign after the next election defeat. Conservatives may split after a referendum no matter whether "remain" or "leave" wins it. And that is the one hope of Labour: that the Tories will split around the subject of Europe and the next Parliament will be a hung one, with Labour being the biggest party.
One thing is certain: British politics will be quite interesting over the next 5 years or so.
The pundits are sharpening their tongues (and their pencils) to try and analyse this victory and predict what it will mean for the Labour party and for Parliament.
How this happened
First, the quick resignation by Ed Miliband probably wasn't necessary. He could have remained as leader and called for a leisurely leadership election. He resigned the morning after the General Election defeat and has pretty much disappeared, except for appearing in a picture sporting an incipient beard. He's kept out of the race and will continue as a backbencher. I expect he will follow his brother (whom he defeated in the 2010 leadership election and who decamped to the United States rather than remaining in Parliament) into either academia or some kind of think tank.
Second, the election rules were changed. Traditionally there were three electoral groups: The labour unions, regular party members, and Labour MPs. If you were a Labour MP, you got at least two votes (as a regular party member and as an MP), and if you were in addition a trade union member, you got three votes. This system was thought to be undesirable since the trade unions had a huge veto over the identify of the leader. To dilute the unions' influence, Miliband changed the system to a one-member-one-vote system. This has produced two difficulties. First, the unions have enormous influence and could sign up thousands of their members as individual members and get them to cast their votes. And second, Labour MPs no longer have much influence over their leader. They band together to nominate one of their fellow MPs for the leadership, but after that they can't influence the election very much.
Corbyn was only nominated at the very last minute by some MPs who were not on the left of the party, but who thought that Corbyn would add some "spice" to the contest and that the left needed representation on the slate. Some of these MPs have been kicking themselves ever since.
On the plus side, many people have joined the party and gotten involved in politics because of Corbyn's presence on the slate.
Other changes included the thought that anyone who paid £3 could become not a Labour member, but a registered supporter, and vote for the leader. Aside from the fact that members of other parties registered as supporters in order to vote for the candidate who would most benefit their parties, this led to an expansion in the number of Corbyn-supporters, who tend to be younger, more socialist in outlook, and more disaffected from the current Labour leadership.
The party tried to exclude people who they could demonstrate had supported other parties, but it ended up with political egg on its virtual face, as long-term Labour supporters who had resigned from the party but who signed up again were unfairly excluded. Some of them were prominent people (Jeremy Hardy, for example) and when they were excluded they went public.
What may now happen
First, I think that a goodly number of shadow Cabinet members (for the parliamentary-democracy-challenged, these are Labour MPs who "shadow" the government cabinet members and who are responsible for calling the government to account and serving as spokespeople for the Opposition's positions on matters within their own portfolio) will resign—some have done so already. Other prominent MPs will not serve with Corbyn.
Some of this comes from the fact that Corbyn has often rebelled against his party since he was elected. Demanding loyalty from his MPs now will be difficult. I predict he will be relaxed about this rather than forcing them to vote as he wishes.
The rest comes from the fact that many Labour MPs owe their preferment to Tony Blair or his Blairite associates. Corbyn is the antithesis of everything that Blair stands for, and during this campaign Blair (who has been pretty silent about his successors Gordon Brown and Miliband) said that anyone who votes with their heart for Corbyn needs a heart transplant. So no love from Blair toward Corbyn then.
What might be a positive outcome is that Corbyn is likely to be much more of a sharper questioner at Prime Minister's Question Time on Wednesdays at noon when Parliament is in session. Miliband tended to look for sound bites in questions, and Cameron fielded these not only with ease, but with venom and even personal cruelty. Corbyn is a teetotaler, a vegetarian, and a Socialist who has not been aligned with his own party. Thus, his questions will tend not to go for the sound bite but be real quests for information, which Cameron will struggle to answer truthfully.
The EU Referendum, to come within 2 years, may hinge on how Labour comes out in reference to EU membership. The last time there was an EU referendum, in the 1970's, many Labour MPs, including many on the left of the party, were against membership for various reasons. Corbyn may not be in favour of continued membership, but I expect he'll allow Labour members to vote with their consciences rather than toeing a party line.
The next General Election
After the gerrymandering of districts that the Conservatives are planning in the UK, it's quite likely that Labour will lose even more seats in the next election. If Corbyn is not unseated in a coup by MPs, he will resign after the next election defeat. Conservatives may split after a referendum no matter whether "remain" or "leave" wins it. And that is the one hope of Labour: that the Tories will split around the subject of Europe and the next Parliament will be a hung one, with Labour being the biggest party.
One thing is certain: British politics will be quite interesting over the next 5 years or so.
