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The UK election results
May. 8th, 2015 10:14 amUp until 9:59:59pm last night, the smart betting was on a hung Parliament; that is, a Parliament where no one party had an absolute majority. The polls were neck-and-neck, and the Tories were very scared.
At 10:00:00pm, the BBC released its exit poll at the same time that voting ended. The Conservatives were on course to be the largest party in Parliament, with close to an absolute majority. Labout would be virtually wiped out in Scotland, going from about 50 seats to 1. The Liberal Democrats would also be reduced by around 47 seats, from 57 to 10.
I will declare an interest here: I am a Liberal Democrat party member, and I voted for our more than 30-year member of Parliament, Simon Hughes. For one of the few Labour gains, Simon lost to Labour. Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, lost his seat, Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, lost his seat. Charles Kennedy, the former party leader, has lost his seat. Nick Clegg, the party leader and Deputy Prime Minister, held on to his, but is likely to step down as leader of the party.
Simon helped HWMBO when he was applying for temporary leave to remain in the UK as my partner. The Home Office lost the application, and I sent a snail-mail letter to Simon's office, as well as posting the problem in soc.motss on Usenet. The very next day someone from Simon's office called me and asked how they could help—before they received the letter. A letter to the Home Office disgorged the application and it was approved. I joined the Liberal Democrat party and have contributed and voted for them ever since. He has been a good constituency MP and worked hard for us. I am sad to see him leave Parliament, and hope that he will continue to be involved in local and national politics.
For Labour, the wipeout in Scotland has also wiped out the shadow Foreign Secretary, Douglas Alexander. In Leeds, the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, has lost his seat. After the dust has settled a bit, it is likely that Ed Miliband will have to resign as Labour leader. And it is difficult to see anyone on the horizon who has the charisma needed to rebuild Labour in Scotland and shore it up in England and Wales.
For the UK Independence Party, Douglas Carswell has been returned (he defected from the Conservatives last year), and Mark Reckless has been defeated in Rochester and Stroud. It is not yet clear whether Nigel Farage, the charismatic leader of the party, has won in South Thanet. If he does not win, he has pledged to resign as leader. News flash: As of 11:00 am, Farage has lost the race to be MP for South Thanet to the Conservatives.
Now for the Conservatives, this has been an excellent night for David Cameron, who will be seeing the Queen at 11:30am to ask for permission to form a Government. He will probably have an effective majority of ten in Parliament.
So how will this shake out in governing the United Kingdom?
First, there is almost certainly going to be a referendum on UK membership of the European Union. Business is almost implacably opposed to an exit, or Brexit as it's been called. However, they have backed the Conservatives and thus, illogically, put our membership at risk. European leaders will be dismayed at Cameron's victory, as they don't get along with him very well and were counting on a hung Parliament or a Conservative loss to make it easier to deal with the UK. While UKIP will campaign, along with some Tories, for a Brexit, if the referendum is won for the EU then the "bastards" who so plagued John Major when he was Prime Minister and who have continued to irritate Cameron, will have to hold their peace. Europe will not compromise on the free movement of people within the EU and thus it is likely that, if the referendum is lost for the EU, that the UK will exit the EU and not accede to the EEA, the group of countries including Norway and Switzerland, which must adhere to EU rules without having any say in their formation. We will be cut off from our major markets and the economy will suffer greatly from movement of capital and companies out of the United Kingdom.
Second, the Scottish Nationalists will be catered to by the Conservatives without the SNP actually supporting them. This is to ensure that Labour does not regain a foothold in Scotland. Another Scottish independence referendum may be on the cards, but unless it's agreed early then the Conservatives will not permit it for at least the next 5 years. It's likely that the SNP will go along with this as power will continue to flow to them until the next referendum happens, perhaps in the Parliament after this one.
Third, the United Kingdom is likely to become a Federal state, with each country within it having its own Parliament and money-raising power except for England, which will still depend on the national Parliament for its laws. This may take longer than one Parliament to achieve, but the course is clear: to retain the United Kingdom as one country will require internal devolution.
Fourth, the rich will become richer and the poor poorer, as austerity has now gained a majority in Parliament. Privatisation will continue, with the NHS at risk of fragmentation and profiting from the misery of patients. There may be civil unrest over austerity, yet this will not change the course of the Conservatives. Those who depend on income support to keep themselves housed and fed will find that support being cut and cut again. Migrants will find not only government hostility to their presence, but bullies and know-nothings across the country will feel encouraged to verbally and even physically assault them.
Those who campaigned to punish the Liberal Democrats for joining in the coalition government have now paradoxically discovered that by punishing the LibDems they have let in a Tory majority that will continue on its course without actually having any brakes on its decisions in Parliament. I believe that these people thought that seats would pass from Liberal Democrat to Labour, but in most cases they have passed from LibDem to Conservative or SNP, thus guaranteeing a Tory majority in Parliament. And the students who punished the LibDems by voting for other parties will now find that they have almost inevitably made their own lot worse, with a tuition fee rise more likely in the next 5 years.
As a nation we have not solved the problem of how to function with a coalition government. Decisions that were inevitable but were against the manifesto of one or the other party were held against that party, with catastrophic results.
One of the things I have learned in my longish life is that landslides are not eternal except in Kazakhstan or North Korea. The Labour landslide of 1997 disappeared in 13 years, and has been turned into a minority, The LibDems were riding high after the last election and have now been clobbered all over the country.
So, the Conservative minority of 1997 has been turned into a Conservative majority in 18 years or so. However, it can be as easily lost as won. And, eventually, it will be lost. It's only a matter of time.
At 10:00:00pm, the BBC released its exit poll at the same time that voting ended. The Conservatives were on course to be the largest party in Parliament, with close to an absolute majority. Labout would be virtually wiped out in Scotland, going from about 50 seats to 1. The Liberal Democrats would also be reduced by around 47 seats, from 57 to 10.
I will declare an interest here: I am a Liberal Democrat party member, and I voted for our more than 30-year member of Parliament, Simon Hughes. For one of the few Labour gains, Simon lost to Labour. Vince Cable, the Business Secretary, lost his seat, Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, lost his seat. Charles Kennedy, the former party leader, has lost his seat. Nick Clegg, the party leader and Deputy Prime Minister, held on to his, but is likely to step down as leader of the party.
Simon helped HWMBO when he was applying for temporary leave to remain in the UK as my partner. The Home Office lost the application, and I sent a snail-mail letter to Simon's office, as well as posting the problem in soc.motss on Usenet. The very next day someone from Simon's office called me and asked how they could help—before they received the letter. A letter to the Home Office disgorged the application and it was approved. I joined the Liberal Democrat party and have contributed and voted for them ever since. He has been a good constituency MP and worked hard for us. I am sad to see him leave Parliament, and hope that he will continue to be involved in local and national politics.
For Labour, the wipeout in Scotland has also wiped out the shadow Foreign Secretary, Douglas Alexander. In Leeds, the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, has lost his seat. After the dust has settled a bit, it is likely that Ed Miliband will have to resign as Labour leader. And it is difficult to see anyone on the horizon who has the charisma needed to rebuild Labour in Scotland and shore it up in England and Wales.
For the UK Independence Party, Douglas Carswell has been returned (he defected from the Conservatives last year), and Mark Reckless has been defeated in Rochester and Stroud. It is not yet clear whether Nigel Farage, the charismatic leader of the party, has won in South Thanet. If he does not win, he has pledged to resign as leader. News flash: As of 11:00 am, Farage has lost the race to be MP for South Thanet to the Conservatives.
Now for the Conservatives, this has been an excellent night for David Cameron, who will be seeing the Queen at 11:30am to ask for permission to form a Government. He will probably have an effective majority of ten in Parliament.
So how will this shake out in governing the United Kingdom?
First, there is almost certainly going to be a referendum on UK membership of the European Union. Business is almost implacably opposed to an exit, or Brexit as it's been called. However, they have backed the Conservatives and thus, illogically, put our membership at risk. European leaders will be dismayed at Cameron's victory, as they don't get along with him very well and were counting on a hung Parliament or a Conservative loss to make it easier to deal with the UK. While UKIP will campaign, along with some Tories, for a Brexit, if the referendum is won for the EU then the "bastards" who so plagued John Major when he was Prime Minister and who have continued to irritate Cameron, will have to hold their peace. Europe will not compromise on the free movement of people within the EU and thus it is likely that, if the referendum is lost for the EU, that the UK will exit the EU and not accede to the EEA, the group of countries including Norway and Switzerland, which must adhere to EU rules without having any say in their formation. We will be cut off from our major markets and the economy will suffer greatly from movement of capital and companies out of the United Kingdom.
Second, the Scottish Nationalists will be catered to by the Conservatives without the SNP actually supporting them. This is to ensure that Labour does not regain a foothold in Scotland. Another Scottish independence referendum may be on the cards, but unless it's agreed early then the Conservatives will not permit it for at least the next 5 years. It's likely that the SNP will go along with this as power will continue to flow to them until the next referendum happens, perhaps in the Parliament after this one.
Third, the United Kingdom is likely to become a Federal state, with each country within it having its own Parliament and money-raising power except for England, which will still depend on the national Parliament for its laws. This may take longer than one Parliament to achieve, but the course is clear: to retain the United Kingdom as one country will require internal devolution.
Fourth, the rich will become richer and the poor poorer, as austerity has now gained a majority in Parliament. Privatisation will continue, with the NHS at risk of fragmentation and profiting from the misery of patients. There may be civil unrest over austerity, yet this will not change the course of the Conservatives. Those who depend on income support to keep themselves housed and fed will find that support being cut and cut again. Migrants will find not only government hostility to their presence, but bullies and know-nothings across the country will feel encouraged to verbally and even physically assault them.
Those who campaigned to punish the Liberal Democrats for joining in the coalition government have now paradoxically discovered that by punishing the LibDems they have let in a Tory majority that will continue on its course without actually having any brakes on its decisions in Parliament. I believe that these people thought that seats would pass from Liberal Democrat to Labour, but in most cases they have passed from LibDem to Conservative or SNP, thus guaranteeing a Tory majority in Parliament. And the students who punished the LibDems by voting for other parties will now find that they have almost inevitably made their own lot worse, with a tuition fee rise more likely in the next 5 years.
As a nation we have not solved the problem of how to function with a coalition government. Decisions that were inevitable but were against the manifesto of one or the other party were held against that party, with catastrophic results.
One of the things I have learned in my longish life is that landslides are not eternal except in Kazakhstan or North Korea. The Labour landslide of 1997 disappeared in 13 years, and has been turned into a minority, The LibDems were riding high after the last election and have now been clobbered all over the country.
So, the Conservative minority of 1997 has been turned into a Conservative majority in 18 years or so. However, it can be as easily lost as won. And, eventually, it will be lost. It's only a matter of time.
